What is 1% of a very large, unknown, number?
Keith S. Taber
(Image by FelixMittermeier from Pixabay)
How can we count the number of stars in the galaxy?
On the BBC radio programme 'More or Less' it was mooted that there might be one hundred billion (100 000 000 000) stars in our own Milky Way Galaxy (and that this might be a considerable underestimate).
The estimate was suggested by Prof. Catherine Heymans who is
the Astronomer Royal for Scotland and Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Edinburgh.
Programme presenter Tim Harford was tackling a question sent in by a young listener (who is very almost four years of age) about whether there are more bees in the world than stars in the galaxy? (Spoiler alert: Prof. Catherine Heymans confessed to knowing less about bees than stars.)
Hatford asked how the 100 billion stars figure was arrived at:
"have we counted them, or got a computer to count them, or is it more a case of, well, you take a photograph of a section of sky and you sort of say well the rest is probably a bit like that?"
The last suggestion here is of course the basis for many surveys. As long as there is good reason to think a sample is representative of the wider population it is drawn from we can collect data from the sample and make inferences about the population at large.
Read about sampling a population
So, if we counted all the detectable stars in a typical 1% of the sky and then multiplied the count by 100 we would get an approximation to the total number of detectable stars in the whole sky. That would be a reasonable method to find approximately how many stars there are in the galaxy, as long as we thought all the detected stars were in our galaxy and that all the stars in our galaxy were detectable.
Prof. Heymans replied
"So, we have the European Space Agency Gaia mission up at the moment, it was launched in 2013, and that's currently mapping out 1% of all the stars in our Milky Way galaxy, creating a three dimensional map. So, that's looking at 1 billion of the stars, and then to get an idea of how many others are there we look at how bright all the stars are, and we use our sort of models of how different types of stars live [sic] in our Milky Way galaxy to give us that estimate of how many stars are there."
Prof. Catherine Heymans interviewed on 'More or Less'
A tautology?
This seemed to beg a question: how can we know we are mapping 1% of stars, before we know how many stars there are?
This has the appearance of a tautology – a circular argument.
To count the number of stars in the galaxy,
- (i) count 1% of them, and then
- (ii) multiply by 100.
So,
- If we assume there are one hundred billion, then we need to
- count one billion, and then
- multiply by 100 to give…
- one hundred billion.
Clearly that did not seem right. I am fairly sure that was not what Prof. Haymans meant. As this was a radio programme, the interview was presumably edited to fit within the limited time allocated for this item, so a listener can never be sure that a question and (apparently immediately direct) response that makes the edit fully reflects the original conversation.
Counting the bright ones
According to the website of the Gaia mission, "Gaia will achieve its goals by repeatedly measuring the positions of all objects down to magnitude 20 (about 400 000 times fainter than can be seen with the naked eye)." Hartman's suggestion that "you take a photograph of a section of sky and you sort of say well the rest is probably a bit like that?" seems very reasonable, until you realise that even with a powerful telescope sent outside of the earth's atmosphere, many of the stars in the galaxy may simply not be detectable. So, what we see cannot be considered to be fully representative of what is out there.
It is not then that the scientists have deliberately sampled 1%, but rather they are investigating EVERY star with an apparent brightness above a certain critical cut off. Whether a star makes the cut, depends on such factors as how bright it is (in absolute terms – which we might imagine we would measure from a standard distance 1) and how close it is, as well as whether the line of sight involves the starlight passing through interstellar dust that absorbs some (or all) of the radiation.
Of course, these are all strictly, largely, unknowns. Astrophysics relies a good on boot-strapping, where our best, but still developing, understanding of one feature is used to build models of other features. In such circumstances, observational tests of predictions from theory are often as much testing the underlying foundations upon which a model used to generate a prediction is built as that specific focal model itself. Knowledge moves on incrementally as adjustments are made to different aspects of interacting models.
Observations are theory-dependent
So, this is, in a sense, a circular process, but it is a virtuous circle rather than just a tautology as there are opportunities for correcting and improving the theoretical framework.
In a sense, what I have described here is true of science more generally, and so when an experiment fails to produce a result predicted by a new theory, it is generally possible to seek to 'save' the theory by suggesting the problem was (if not a human error) not in the actual theory being tested, but in some other part of the more extended theoretical network – such as the theory underpinning the apparatus used to collect data or the the theory behind the analysis used to treat data.
In most mature fields, however, these more foundational features are generally considered to be sound and unlikely to need modifying – so, a scientist who explains that their experiment did not produce the expected answer because electron microscopes or mass spectrometers or Fourier transform analyses do not work they way everyone has for decades thought they did would need to offer a very persuasive case.
However, compared to many other fields, astrophysics has much less direct access to the phenomena it studies (which are often vast in terms of absolute size, distance and duration), and largely relies on observing without being able to manipulate the phenomena, so understandably faces special challenges.
Why we need a theoretical model to finish the count
Researchers can use our best current theories to build a picture of how what we see relates to what is 'out there' given our best interpretations of existing observations. This is why the modelling that Prof. Heymans refers to is so important. Our current best theories tell us that the absolute brightness of stars (which is a key factor in deciding whether they will be detected in a sky survey) depends on their mass, and the stage of their 'evolution'.2
So, completing the count needs a model which allows data for detectable stars to be extrapolated, bearing in mind our best current understanding about the variations in frequencies of different kinds (age, size) of star, how stellar 'densities' vary in different regions of a spiral galaxy like ours, the distribution of dust clouds, and so forth.
I have taken the liberty of offering an edited exchange
Hartford: "have we counted [the hundred billion stars], or got a computer to count them, or is it more a case of, well, you take a photograph of a section of sky and you sort of say well the rest is probably a bit like that?"
Heymans "So, we have the European Space Agency Gaia mission up at the moment, it was launched in 2013, and that's currently mapping out…all the stars in our Milky Way galaxy [that are at least magnitude 20 in brightness], creating a three dimensional map. So, that's looking at 1 billion of the [brightest] stars [as seen from our solar system], and then to get an idea of how many others are there we look at how bright all the stars are, and we use our models of how different types of stars [change over time 2] in our Milky Way galaxy to give us that estimate of how many stars are there."
No more tautology. But some very clever and challenging science.
(And are there more bees in the world or stars in the galaxy? The programme is available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00187wq.)
Note:
1 This issue of what we mean by the brightness of a star also arose in a recent post: Baking fresh electrons for the science doughnut
2 Stars are not alive, but it is common to talk about their 'life-cycles' and 'births' and 'deaths' as stars can change considerably (in brightness, colour, size) as the nuclear reactions at their core change over time once the hydrogen has all been reacted in fusion reactions.